THE IMPACT OF QASSEM SOLEIMANI ASSASSINATION TO KENYA

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After U. S assassination of Iranian senior Commander and Quds Force leader Lt. Gen Qassem Soleiman in Baghdad early Friday, here are the consequences Kenya may face.

SECURITY
Better part of yesterday, on Twitter the hashtag trending were related to world war 3. Majority claiming that U.S.A has just triggered world war three, especially when the Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini promised “hash revenge” on America, tension is already high but I don’t think there is going to be another world war 3 soon.

Parts of Suleimani after the assassination

Iran is known in fighting proxy wars, therefore there’ll be proxy retaliations on U.S, U.K and Israel interests around the world. They’ll sponsor Hezbollah, Houthi, and other militias.

Quds Force is equivalent of C.I.A and it’s main mandate is to lead Iranian Military strategy around the world and in Kenya I think they are going to use Al Shabaab to mount attacks, given that Nairobi hosts the biggest diplomatic missions on Africa soil, and Kenya routinely collaborated with U.S in Counter Terrorism activities.

Lest we forget Iran through Quds Force tried to attack Kenya previously
On 19th June 2012 Ahmad Abolfathi Mohamed and Sayed Mansour Mousavi who are members of Quds Force were arrested by detectives as they were planning to bomb Israeli embassy, British high commission and U. S. A embassy in Kenya. Subsequently the two mercenaries led authorities to a cache of 15 Kilogrammes (out of 85 Kgs) of RDX, highly explosive chemical. They were arrested after communicating with Al Shabaab operative in the country meaning Iranian Quds Force is leaked to Somali terrorists Al Shabaab. The two terrorists are serving life time imprisonment at Kamiti maximum prison, though their sentence can be to 15 Years jail time.

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On October 29th 2015 after long intensive investigation, Detectives arrested Abubakar Sadiq Louw a senior figure in Nairobi Shiite Community. He admitted recruiting young Kenyans to spy on behalf of Quds Force. One of his recruits Yassin Sambai Juma was arrested on 19th November 2019 when returning from Iran. Sadiq told the detectives that he arranged for Juma to travel to Iran for military training through a contact he only by his nickname “Parsa” later the Authority identified the man as Mojtaba Ghanbarian a senior Quds Force member. Their mission was to spy on behalf of the Quds Force for future terror attacks and to recruit others. Both confessed working for the foreign agency.


Currently we are not in good relationship with Iran, they do not have an ambassador in Nairobi. The former envoy Dr. Hadi Farajvand left the country in 2019 under a cloud of controversy, his replacement is yet to present his credentials.
Kenya should prepare to stop Al Shabaab attacks sponsored by Quds Force.

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Also about 70 Kilogrammes of RDX is still in the hands of Quds operatives in Kenya. Security agencies were only able to recover 15 Kilogrammes of RDX out of 85 Kilogrammes shipped in the country. The 70 Kgs can be used to make several bombs. They may use Kenyans spies/ sympathisers like Abubakar Sadiq Louw and Yassin Sambai Juma to launch attacks or sneaked in Quds Force fighters like Ahmad Abolfathi Mohamed and Sayed Mansour Mousavi then use the remaining RDX. Kenya authorities should therefore be vigilant, especially Northern frontiers Counties, Coastal Counties and Nairobi.

ECONOMIC

In 2009 then Iran President Mohmoud Ahmadinajad visited followed by his deputy Mohammad Reza Rahimi visit in May 2012, numerous deals were signed including a deal to import 4M tonnes of oil annually (800,000 barrels per day), Direct flights between Nairobi and Tehran, Scholarships for Kenyans to pursue higher education in Iran.

In August 2014 the Cabinet secretary for Foreign affairs in Kenya Madam Ambassador Amina Mohamed met with the Foreign affairs Minister of Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif in Tehran. The two signed MOU’s in Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation, the MOU’s identified Transportation and infrastructure, Energy, Agriculture, Water and Irrigation, housing and health as key areas of cooperation. Meaning Iran has been good economic friend, but she turns it’s back on us these are some of consequences.

  1. Given that Iran is the world biggest oil exporter and Kenya being the an oil importer one of the consequences is the increase in oil prices. When Oil prices are high there will be increase inflation and reduce in economic growth. Also it will affect the prices of other goods in Kenya market as the production cost will be high. Fares and transport costs will also be high.
  2. Iran is one of the biggest tea importer from Kenya, 2018 Kenya sold 4.8 Million Kilogrammes of tea to Iran, if they decide to punish Kenya for associating with the U.S it will mean there will be reduction in export revenue hence decline in GDP, unemployment and depreciation in exchange rates.
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