LESSONS LEARNED FROM KIBRA CONSTITUENCY BY-ELECTION

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Bernard 'Imran' Otieno Okoth

Let’s appreciate in any competition there will be a winner others will have no choice but to back the winner and life moves on

IEBC declared Bernard ‘Imran’ Otieno Okoth the mp elect for Kibra early this morning. Imran garnered Owalo was third With 5,275

From the by-election, we learned a lot. it was not just political competition between 24 candidates, it has a lot to do with the 2022 General election.

#1. NEW ALLIANCES

Kibra is one of Raila Odinga’s strongholds. through his influence in the area, any candidate he was going to support was going to win. But he went ahead and invite Machakos Governor, Dr. Alfred Mutua of Maendeleo ChapChap, Makuenu Governor Prof. Kivutha Kibwana of Mzalendo party, Governor Charity Ngilu of NARK, Kirinyaga Governor Ann Waiguru from Jubilee Party, Bomet, Billionaire and politicians Buzek Bundetich from Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM) and other KANU politicians to campaign for his ODM candidate.

To me he was showing Kenyans the people he’ll be working with come 2022. In his game plan to win the presidential race come 2022 has has ‘Political heavyweights’ the likes of Governor Ali Hassan Joho, Governor Dr. Alfred Mutua, Governor Charity Ngilu, former Governor Issac Rutto, Senator Gideon Moi, Buzek Bundetich, Governor Amason Kingi, Governor Oparanya, Governor Granton Samboja, Governor Ann Waiguru among others representing all corners of to show the inclusivity in his ‘forthcoming government’ strategically so that to have support from every Kenya

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#2. MARRIAGES BROKEN

NASA coalition is dead, all NASA principals had their candidate in Kibra by-election. Meaning they are not reading from the same script. ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said, “after the election, we going to devoice the other parties in NASA”.

ODM party leader, Raila Odinga the former coalition presidential candidate was supporting the winner and MP-elect Bernard ‘Imran’ Otieno Okoth.

ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi whose NASA is his brainchild was supporting Eliud Owalo former Raila Odinga strategist.

FORD-K party leader Senator Moses supported Engineer Hamisi Butich who vied for a senatorial seat in the last General election in one of the counties in the Western region.

Wiper party leader former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka was supporting musician superstar musician CMB – Prezzo, they had availed him on Twitter as their candidate but after they were bashed by #KOT they withdraw his candidature but they said he’ll be in the ballot papers as their candidate come 2022.

The cracks didn’t end in coalitions but also in parties. Jubilee party though had their candidate MacDonald Mariga but some of members led by Governor Ann Waiguru Nominated MP Maina Kamanda, Nyeri MP and Ngunjiri Wambugu campaigned for ODM candidate Imran.

The same applies to ANC who had Owalo as their candidate Senator Cleophas Mwalala and Nominated MP Geoffrey Otsotsi campaign for ODM candidate.

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Jubilee party had support from ODM member and Malindi constituency MP Asha Jumwa who has a fallout with ODM a long time ago.

#3. VOTER TURNOUT

Given how the campaign was conducted, who were involved and the money spent you’ll be expected to have a huge turnout not low turnout, only 41,984 participated out of 118,276. Clearly showing possiblity of low voters turnout come 2022. Therefore, politicians and their strategists planning to win should plan on into how to persuade voters to turn up on the voting day

WINNERS AND LOSERS

They say, in elections, there’s only a winner and others who received low or few votes but there’s no losers. In this by-election, there’s losers too.

WINNERS

a). BBI indirectly scored high and it’s the number one winner. Immediately after the handshake between Present Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga, Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho arranged a meeting with all youth leaders from all counties of former Coast province including the Author. He told the attendees including Kilifi County Governor Amason Kingi what handshake means, we were told there’s a plan to change the constitution to reintroduce the prime minister position and his deputies and a new political formation which will win the 2022 election. After what transpired in Kibra more people will start supporting the BBI. 

b). ODM Bernard’Imran’Otieno Okoth and Raila Odinga are automatic winners in this election. For retaining the seat

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c). Kibra people are winners for exercising their constitutional right by voting. It doesn’t matter whether the candidate someone she or he voted lost.

LOSERS

a) ANC, Eliud Owalo and Musalia Mudavadi are number losers; they had the upper tribal card. Owalo is a Luo, who are second majority voters and Mudavadi is a Luhya, who are the Majority voters in Kibra but they failed to utilize that, they also had the best online machinery, almost all ODM bloggers were campaigning for him but still they failed, and to add salt to an itching sore ANC members Geoffrey Otsotsi and Senator Cleophas Mwalala campaigned for ODM candidate.

b). IEBC showed they are not prepared to conduct election; this was a by-election what if it was a General election? They should buy new kits and train their officials well. 

c). Jubilee Party, Mariga and DP William Ruto are losers, a narrative and perception has been created that Dp Ruto is going to lose come 2022.

Their new recruit former senator Bonny Khalwale ‘Bullfight’ misbehaved making him and jubilee party trending for a wrong reason

d). ODM, though they won the election the use of violence is a loss to them. People who are allegedly involved in election multipratice are supposed to be reported to police not biting and manhandling.

Congratulations to Bernard Imran Otieno Okoth for his victory!!!!!!

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